This has been one of our busiest years, yet anyone watching listings in Central Marin would say there hasn't been much for sale. Both are true. Well-priced homes near town, updated and ready to move into, have often sold within days of listing, so they barely register in inventory counts. Others never reached the open market at all.
That second group is larger than most people realize. So far this year, at least 244 single-family homes in Marin have sold off market, about one in seven sales. In some of our most sought-after towns the share is higher.
The numbers suggest those sellers paid for the privilege.
In every town, homes sold through the MLS closed further above their asking price than homes sold privately. The gap was 3 percentage points in Ross and 10 in Mill Valley. On a home listed at $2.5 million, a 6-point difference is about $150,000.
These figures don't account for everything. Some off-market homes sell without preparation, and some list prices are set after a buyer is already in hand. Still, the pattern holds across every town we looked at, and it matches what we see in practice. When a home is exposed to every qualified buyer at once, competition sets the price. When it's offered to one buyer or a small circle, the seller negotiates against far fewer people.
When selling privately still makes sense
There are good reasons to sell off market:
A need for privacy
A tight timeline
A buyer who appears at the right moment with the right terms
A home you'd rather not prepare and show
We've handled sales like this for clients, and for them it was the right decision. What matters is making that choice knowingly. Off-market sales trade some price for convenience or discretion, and sellers should understand that trade before they make it.
What this means for buyers
If you're looking in Kentfield, Ross, or Larkspur, the MLS shows only part of the market. Up to a third of sales in these towns happened without a public listing. Working with an agent who knows which owners are considering a move matters more here than in most places.
What this means for sellers
Unless privacy is a priority, the open market has produced better results this year. A short conversation about your timing, your home's condition, and your goals will clarify which approach fits for you.
